On Rigging

First, a few observations on the new narrative being constructed about rigging; specifically the ‘electiontribunals’ argument made famous by who appears to be Fakhruddin Ibrahim’s son. While many went gaga over it yesterday, this 'view' has been here for a month now. I first read it in a Dawn column at the start of last month, and in a Five Rupees blog the next day. Since then it has been furiously parroted by at least one PMLN guy on TV; the new Punjab law minister. 

The argument basically is that the election tribunals are working fine, with 78% (latest FAFEN report) of the petitions disposed of already. ‘Already’ and ‘fine’ here are obviously relative to which side of the political divide you are.

The tribunals are supposed to conduct hearings day-to-day and under no circumstances grant an adjournment of more than 7 days. They broke the law and granted adjournments of more than 7 days on 2,393 occassions. And 'already' it is almost a year after the stipulated time period for settling the petitions, with the new assemblies having served 25% of their term, and the process isn’t done. Next will come appeals in the Supreme Court.

More importantly, the disposal of these petitions doesn’t have as much bearing on settling the rigging issue as you would think. That has to do more with the manner of their disposal.

Consider that 26 petitions never made it to tribunals, 28 were withdrawn and 22 dismissed due to non-prosecution. By far the largest number, 126, were dismissed on technical grounds, these include some of MQM’s wonders in Karachi, and 30 were dismissed due to ‘unknown reasons’ (FAFEN tried and failed to obtain copy of orders).

Petitions which went to full trial and couldn’t be proved stand at 62. Petitions accepted stands at 24, with the most number of de-seated MPs belonging to the PMLN at 10.

62-to-24 is a pretty serious ratio. Make that 62-to-25 after another MP, again from the PMLN, was de-seated on allegations of rigging in PP-97 Gujranwala.

Additionally, even the petitions that went to full trial and couldn’t be proved include many where influential government figures held sway and recounts or vote verifications were never carried out.

Which brings us to NA 110. Khuwaja Asif’s victory here was challenged by the PTI as one of four constituencies where they demanded recount and vote verification. Video evidenceof PMLN polling agents stuffing ballots was also available.

Vote verification was never carried out. Instead, as Mr Ibrahim pointed, the tribunal found that the petitioner was non-serious. This example was also quoted in the initial five rupees blog, which sourced the two pages of the verdict from a defence.pk forum. Also available on the forum was the version of the petitioner, which has been ignored by both the initial blog and the recent article.

The petitioner claimed that he had in fact attended all hearings but the court did not grant the request for vote verification. Later when he travelled abroad with the consent of the tribunal, a hearing was set in his absence and he was declared absent and disinterested in said hearing.

So while vote verification, or even a recount, never took place, the official record for this petition will read “not proved in trial”.

The order in NA 110 by election tribunal apparently annoyed with adjournments from petitioner is dated May 12. On May 16, Speaker of the national assembly Ayaz Sadiq got his stay order extended against recount in NA 122. He clearly hasn’t annoyed any judge. NA 122 is the second NA constituency where the initial demand for recounting and verification was made.

A glimpse into this constituency is provided by vote verification in six polling stations of its provincial counterpart, PP 147. The record for the 6 polling stations showed that around 4,700 votes were polled here. However, only over 3,700 could be recovered from the bags. Around 700 of them were cast using fake CNIC numbers on the counterfoils.

The third NA is 125 with Khwaja Saad Rafique. The petition filed against him states that at the very least 15 polling stations in the constituency that polled at 100 percent should be opened up for verification. 15 different polling stations had a voter turnout of 100 percent. No verification has been ordered.

Voters in the area filmed and photographed Khuwaja Saad barging into one women’s polling station after the other, an upright police SP in tow. The current minister later claimed that he went to the polling stations because all of them, and these are his words, “were taken over by PTI women”.

In the storied history of Pakistani elections, this is the first instance an MNA and a police SP had to rush to different polling stations in order to liberate them from women.

There is another instance of a polling incident involving women & PMLN. In the by-elections after the 2008 election, PMLN workers and police barged into a women’s polling station. They grabbed the ballots from PML-Q women supporters. Before running away with the ballots, they beat the women, molested and “de-shalwared” them, as witnessed and reported here by Marvi Memon, current PMLN MNA.

The last NA constituency is NA 154. It saw Siddique Khan Baloch gain 40,000 or so votes overnight to beat Jehangir Tareen by around 10,000 votes, with rejected votes over 9,000. 2 days later his historic turnaround victory made sense when it was announced he would be joining the PMLN.

After a year of stays when recounting commenced the ballots were found infested with termites. Polling bags are supposed to be sealed after counting so no votes can be added or taken out. 80% were unsealed.

Overall, the three most common complaints in the election process have been:-

1)     ROs, who were judges, helping one party or another & fudging the vote counts provided by Presiding Officers, a la “typo”.

2)      Collusion of POs & polling staff with one party or another to stuff ballots, slow down women’s voting etc.

3)      Refusal to sign and hand over Form XIVs, polling details and vote count, by POs to polling agents. This can later to be used to tally with ROs counts. But only if you get it, get it?

In fact, according to FAFEN, 212 of the petitions that made it election tribunals levelled allegations of corrupt or illegal practices by the administration, election officials and/or polling staff.

This has different connotations for different areas. In Balochistan of course the military didn’t want Akhtar Mengal to win and large scale voter suppression, PMLN’s Abdul Qadir Baloch won by polling a whopping 7,000 votes, helped achieve that end. In Karachi the votes were going to the MQM or the polling staff were going to boris. Etc.

So who did it in Punjab, & how? Nobody talks about this for obvious reasons, but I am sure everyone in the know, knows. In the first week after the election bureaucrats in Lahore were telling anyone who would listen that Aslam Kamboh & Justice Ramday were the king’s men who did what was necessary.

The Election Commission admitted, and FAFEN pointed out, that they did not have complete authority over the ROs. The ROs are answerable to the courts and the POs to their relevant government departments, which for a large part happen to be the education department.

In subsequent reports FAFEN has recommended that the ECP should be empowered to suspend and take action against these public functionaries.

However, the damage in this election has been done. Perhaps stung after finding ‘radi’ filled in polling bags of Kasur, Aitezaz Ahsan is the first and only person I can think of who spoke about Justice Ramday & Justice Khwaja Sharif coordinating the activities of ROs on May 11, to the benefit of the winners in Punjab.

Some police officers were transferred from Punjab to Balochistan before Najam Sethi took office as caretaker CM, not when he was there. While Muneeb & Khwaja Saad will have you believe he shuffled around the Punjab government as much as humanly possible, he did forget to remove one guy.

Aslam Kamboh, who had been serving as Shahbaz Sharif’s secretary for schools since 2009, was accidentally & totally unintentionally allowed to remain in that position by future chairman PCB Najam Sethi during elections. No wonder POs, Gov school teachers, were so reluctant to sign Form XIVs. 

Nobody has publically taken his name so far, but the PTI have hinted at it lately, so he might come up before 14^th August.

Will it make a difference? Not likely. In a country where the caretaker CM of a province said on air that rigging took place & he wasn’t “allowed” to go outside on election day, in the same show where the anchor had ballots in his hand, people are still looking for evidence of rigging.

Evidence that can satisfy these people, and the Pakistani courts, is hard to come by. It is even harder to come by against the Sharif family. Affidavits against them by colluders in riggings past are not it, nor are admissions of money laundering, videos of their goons beating people or even audio tapes of Shahbaz Sharif influencing a judge.

There’s never any ‘evidence’ against the Sharifs.

While it's hard to match the resolve shown in not finding evidence against the Sharifs, people on the other side now have somewhat comparable views on rigging. With the ECP & judiciary already viewed as controversial, to say the least, vote verification by NADRA seemed the only alternative that could satisfy them. The whole episode with NADRA chief Tariq Malik, from his illegal removal by Nawaz Sharif to the current arrest plans, has put an end to that option. And while the court noted that Tariq Malik was threatened & put under pressure to resign, evidence against the Sharifs again eluded them.

Well, buckle up then.

Death & Discourse

The recent strikes in North Waziristan have prompted some to conclude that the "time for talk is over", and this could indeed be the case if a long standing peace deal with Hafiz Gul Bahadur in NWA is revoked. However, the PMLN government’s penchant for saying one thing and doing nothing means that the confused lull will prevail for a while longer.

What struck me the most is the attention the strikes received and the questions raised, again, over the identity of those killed. Perhaps it is because of government ownership and high profile nature of talks, but strikes in NWA seem to come under the spotlight ever since Nawaz Sharif took power. This has given yours truly renewed hope that some truth about our war on terror might be on its way to a screen/newspaper near you, and that blatant lying about the dead may end in the distant future.

The partisan nature of our media and media men is such that for the truth to ever come out; their interests/agendas must be aligned with it. With 4 separate agendas coming to the fore this time around, we have a tiny window of opportunity.

The first group comprises of earnest supporters of democracy who can be seen cheering on the army to bomb without political approval.  They are pretty much set in their ways, and will not bring about desirable effects. Expect newfound patriotism and alignment with Pak army lover for life crowd.

The second are the mostly right-wing guys. Always uneasy with the ops, it has however been difficult to choose between the mullah and the military. If the NS government falls out with the army, they could spin into action and start pointing out transgressions of the army.

Third - the drone-mongers. An unhealthy obsession with robots killing people, to ultimately save mankind (Hello Hollywood), means they will continue to preach the lesser evil. Pointing out heavy collateral from strikes is imperative.

Finally we have the “can’t deal with being out of power” ANP, PPP types. Hard-core fans of military operations, they are looking to somehow use casualties from bombings as a stick to beat anti-ops people with.

The media, its incompetence and its agendas are one of the most important factors in this war, and certainly the most powerful in shaping public perception. It’s for that reason that the bullshit about 50,000 people killed by TTP persists in our discourse. It persists regardless of what the interior ministry says, regardless of what independent research says, and regardless of how many people you irritate by pointing it out.

To what extent do the intellectulas in media mutilate the facts? Dawn, a newspaper that has emerged as consensus “sane voice” these days owing to media infighting, should serve as a reliable enough barometer.

On the pages of Dawn one among many seasoned, former PPP and current, columnist, professed in February of this year that 40 K innocents had been killed by our enemies in the tribal badlands. By March, that number had climbed to 50 thousand innocents killed. And in April it had come to the attention of said author and paper that at least 55 thousand fatalities had been incurred.

The paper and the author have a strictly anti-talks approach on the matter, and if 15 thousand killed extra over two months reinforces their argument, why not? You could see their desperation, and the number of dead, growing as the talks moved forward.

Fact is, media people couldn’t care less how many lives have been lost, or how. Meanwhile, “reporting” is an alien concept. What happens here is they reach a conclusion among their little cliques, and then invent facts & arrange events to help everyone else reach the same conclusion. After-party sees them tell each other how objective and balanced they are.

This is why the new agendas emerging are an exciting prospect. If they can go to such lengths with their own faeces, imagine what these “news” organizations could do with facts.

The most dangerous lot is the right-wing, pro gov one. Granted they will only go into overdrive if PMLN takes on the army, but the potential is enormous. They are the only group, because conservative and Nawaz, that will touch the heavy “collateral damage” accumulated in the last decade, and the façade of the 50 thousand killed.

The drone-mongers, ANP-PPP dudes are only going to do little teasers. Their “liberal” orientation dictates that collateral damage happens and lying for a good cause is not really lying, so 50 K stays. The best outcome they can achieve is pique the interest of people in collateral damage with their jibes.

Hopefully then some idiots with “journalist” in their bios can look into it. Well, stranger things have happened.

Say for arguments sake that enough idiots start looking into the whole thing. By the law of averages, one of them could reach the logical conclusion that if suicide bombings, the most lethal weapon in our enemy’s arsenal, have claimed 6 thousand lives, it is unlikely that IEDs and hit and runs etc. would have killed another 44 thousand. From there it could follow that perhaps the numbers put out by organizations like PIPS are more credible than the numbers pulled out of their own assess by senior columnists?

And what about collateral damage? Is there any collateral damage at all? Is that picture photoshopped? I bet everyone who’s dead because of our bombardment deserves it. Twitter has become a court where credibility is judged by witty one-liners rather than by facts & patterns.

There’s this report at the Costs of War website that talks about Pakistani civilians killed by Pakistani military operations. The figures it quotes for civilians we have killed are pretty impressive, which it has sourced from PIPS.

Interestingly, the PIPS annual security reports, available for download at its website, do not label these deaths as civilian deaths. They are defined just as deaths in “operational attacks”.

Operational attacks are further defined as “Pre-emptive attacks launched by military and paramilitary troops to purge an area of militants.” Hmm, what could that mean...

A report by CIVIC titled “Civilian Harm & Conflict in Northwest Pakistan” came out in 2010 and it sheds some light onto the purging pre-emptive assaults we have used.

Artillery fire and mortars used by our military, according to those interviewed by CIVIC, “were the most common causes of harm suffered by civilians during military operations”.

The report cites some chilling interviews, from a boy who saw scattered organs of his mother, a man whose grand-daughter was blown to pieces and one who lost 5 members of his family in a single strike.

Military jets and gunships are not very forgiving either. One resident cited in the report recalls, “They were shelling just in the bazaar... it was indiscriminate fire, not discriminating between people and militants...the shrapnel struck me in the leg and the head.”

Another incident cited goes like this “On April 10, 2010, Pakistani jet fighters bombed targets in Sra Vela, a village in Khyber Agency, believing they were hitting a meeting attended by a high-level militant commander.

Instead, they hit the home of a pro-government family with three brothers serving with government forces. A second bomb hit crowds of neighbors as they tried to help those injured in the first strike. At least 60 civilians were killed and 30 injured.”

This, totally guessing, has to create resentment against us. The kid who lost his mother had this to say,

“If my mother was killed by the Taliban, one can expect it from them because they are crooks. But one can’t expect it from a trained army…they are to protect us not to kill us like rats.”

These pre-emptive, purging attacks claimed a staggering 14,148 lives from 2008 to 2012. The PIPS reports break them down as:

3,182 deaths in 2008

6,329 deaths in 2009

2,631 deaths in 2010

1046 deaths in 2011

960 deaths in 2012

It should be noted that these numbers do not include any terrorists engaged and killed by security forces. These are only the people we have bombed to death. The terrorist fatalities in confrontations with security forces, initiated either way, are separate and much lower than fatalities in these purging attacks.

A total of 6198 deaths were reported when terrorists have been engaged by security forces in the same period, according to PIPS, with the breakdown as follows:

655 deaths in 2008

1,163 deaths in 2009

2,007 deaths in 2010

1668 deaths in 2011

705 deaths in 2012

Another hushed up aspect of the war are the rights violations. While Balochistan has made enforced disappearances famous, the practice was probably first used by the Musharraf government against those suspected of supporting the jihadist cause. More importantly it has not stopped since Musharraf’s departure.

Amnesty International’s 2012 report titled Hands of Cruelty speaks of many violations committed by both the Taliban and the army. Ours include deaths in custody, torture and enforced disappearances. The report noted that 2000 cases pertaining to missing persons are registered in the Peshawar High Court, but the actual number could be much higher.

Tough break.

Now we do not hear about all this in the media because it does not fit with the picture they want to paint. The “liberal” voices, usually no fans of the military and usually big fans of human rights, are especially keen to look away because “the Taliban deserve it”. Additionally, and more importantly, highlighting killings, torture and other abuses taking place in military operations weakens their case for use of force, and could raise sympathy for the TTP.

The greater good coming into play again here.

Problem? By rigorously lying about how much damage the enemy has done, and resolutely ignoring any that we are doing, a fabricated identity of the war has been created.

That the national discourse about the war is carried out in the same fictional environment does the rest of us a great disservice. The thousands that have lost loved ones in the theatre of war, and the millions that have been forced to flee it, end up with a very different perception of the war than we do.

Theirs is based on what has happened on the ground; the number of dead, the number of missing, the loss of property is all real to them, not made up to suit one narrative or the other. And they don’t have the luxury of looking away when it isn’t pretty anymore.

War is dirty business, and perhaps we have no choice other than to do what we have been doing. But disregarding half of what's happening will bring us no closer to understanding how to deal with it, and is likely to keep us clogged in this circle of violence.

Mainstreaming Hate

While discourse about the Taliban problem in Pakistan’s print media has never been awe-inspiring, at least in the good sense, you have to admit it has reached astounding new lows these past few months. Arguments have been disposed of as unnecessary or trivial, giving way to jibes and accusations. A good article today is not one that tries to reason, understand or explain,  it is one that labels the other side as, say, ignorant, cowardly, pathetic, utterly arrogant and/or shameful. All qualities possessed in abundance by one Kamran Shafi. In his writing, obviously.

This kind of writing is then celebrated by like-minded commentators with great enthusiasm, hailed as the final nail in the other side’s coffin, until next week. So while Mickey uncle has had his day in the sun as the man who finally exterminated Imran Khan, he must give way now to Cyril, who has new, more polished goodies to sell.

It is telling that a more reasoned, argumentative and evidence based piece by Babar Sattar failed to capture the imagination of this rowdy crowd in the way that the other two have. If you want to be a hero Mr Sattar, start fighting the villain.

Which is what Cyril does with aplomb, week after week.

Once upon a time Pakistan was a beautiful and serene locale, where extremism was in its place, justice reigned supreme. Enter Taliban Khan. He said our beautiful paradise actually required a few tweaks, just a little less corruption, a little more honesty, if you will. One thing led to another, and he mainstreamed extremism !! *Gasps*

It was that handsome mug that doomed us, those plaintive eyes misled us; that soft, colloquial Urdu weaved its magic, those open hands hugged us in a suffocating embrace — an irresistible package hawking irresistible simplicities, irresistibly drawing us into a quicksand of irresistible hate whose grip is, believe it or not, irresistible.

Yes, it was this man and this man alone, who caused inconceivable damage to the fabric of our society. An invasion next door had nothing to do with it. The influx of more refugees did squat. Drone attacks by a foreign power on our soil were of no concern. That we were paid by the US to fight our war of terror bothered no one. Thousands died in those operations? Meh. Millions of IDPs languishing around the country? Shit happens.

All that equates to nada. It’s all on Imran.

Simplification, Cyril says, is Taliban Khan’s greatest gift. Hmm.

Let’s recap how Imran Khan has managed to mainstream extremism in this great country of ours. He says we should talk to solve militancy, and use force as a last resort. He says drone attacks are a bad thing. He says innocent people die in military operations.

If that isn’t mainstreaming extremism, I don’t know what the fuck is.

What’s more striking is that he’s been saying all that since before the Pakistani version of the Taliban came into being, and he’s been called Taliban Khan since before the TTP as well. More strikingly, he said before we were in this shit storm, that if we continue down this path we will get into a shit storm.

Yet instead of the much maligned, short sighted idiot doing the “I told you so” dance, the far sighted, articulate and reasonable among us are … forget it.

It is incredible the amount of hate this man attracts from the Liberatti (coinage: @summeryael ). You would think it was him who helped establish the original Taliban emirate across the border. That was Hazrata Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Shaheed, before the plight of common Pakistani citizens such as Pervez Musharraf and Condoleezza Rice forced her to renounce the Taliban and come home to fight the menace.

Nor was it him who wanted to become Ameer-ul-Momineen, emulating the one-eyed wonder that is Mullah Omar. That would be democratic hero-stooge of Zia-ul-Haq; Nawaz Sharif. Before the “wants to take on the Taliban but hands are tied by Imran Khan’s rhetoric” and Saudi interests thing.

He is so evil he will impose the barbaric Shariah on us, take away the rights of women, lynch people and everyone will have long thick beards. You know, what Shaheed BB did to Afghanistan, or what Mian Sahab wanted to do here.

He wants to talk with the barbarians, he might give them FATA. Like ANP already did with Swat.

It is insane. Everything that he has never said he will do, but it is beyond doubt that he will do, has already been done by ANP and PPP. Why don’t they get that hate? They didn’t mean it you see, they just, you know, did it. He on the other hand, doesn’t say it, the cunning bastard, but he really means it. Trust us, we know.

Propaganda is a vile thing, and it works. The constant lying and more lying eventually takes its toll, and without the media means to contradict it, it is dangerously polarizing.

The recent expulsion of a PTI delegation from a Shia protest camp in Lahore is a prime example. Imran is the only leader to have gone to the Hazara in Quetta after the terrible tragedies last year. He is the only one who openly condemned the LeJ. And he is getting thrown out because the media will constantly paint him as a villain.

Meanwhile the PMLN pay Malik Ishaq the stipend and LeJ continue to operate out of Raisaini’s territory in Mastung. PPP ministers have LeJ guards, and a PPP local leader owned the bomb factory probably used in the tanker blast against Hazaras.

But facts mean less than nothing when Mickey or Cyril can take a dump and print it in a national newspaper, every week.

The only hate Imran has mainstreamed is the hate of this bunch against Imran Khan. 

Hypocrisy & Loyalty

Imran Khan said before the elections that he would shoot down US drones if given power. That didn’t happen, so he’s resorted to clogging traffic. The blocking of NATO supplies by PTI doesn’t seem to have had much effect on the transatlantic military alliance, but it has caused a lot of concern among a certain section of the Pakistani media.

Since public opinion, shockingly, is still against America’s killing campaign, the discomforted media members cannot directly ask that NATO not be caused inconvenience. Therefore, they have resorted to indirect methods. These include criticizing the effectiveness of the blockage & the choice of route as well as calling it illegal and hypocritical.

The hypocritical bit is most interesting. The argument goes that as KPK government runs many development programmes with US aid money, the PTI have no right to question the democracy bringers. An addition to “calling out the hypocrisy” literature was made in a column by a London based lawyer. She argues that since Chaudhry Nisar’s children are US citizens, it is wrong for him to question their policy. Imran Khan, we are also reminded, chose to marry a UK citizen and have children with her when he clearly knew he would be halting NATO supplies almost two decades later.

The actions of Nisar & Imran have apparently caused US & UK to refuse visas to Pakistani citizens, the exact number for which you will have to ask said columnist. In my personal experience of trying to get out of Pakistan once Gillani said “Why don’t they leave then?” it was the No-Passport policy by the PPP government that caused most concern. Bilawal & Co btw had passports and lived abroad.

She also believes that burning visas and not visiting the US or UK will be far more effective in stopping drone attacks than blocking the supplies to bases that house drones. Yes, not going on holiday stops drones; stopping supplies to drone bases does not stop drones. The logic clearly is flawless.

The application form for a visa to the US or the UK does not ask one to declare full support for their extra-judicial killing campaigns. The aid for the development programmes also doesn’t stipulate a support for drone attacks. Citizens in the two countries do not, repeat do not, pledge never to condemn drone strikes that not only often kill innocents, but also provide more fuel for terrorism.

Yet this thinking, in our more “liberal” section of media, persists. If you raise money in the US, you cannot criticize their policies; if you live in the UK, you cannot protest their transgressions.

The fact that this logic implies you have to give up your citizenship or rights or whatever just to disagree with a government’s policy of murder is not the point. The point is what this tells us about people moulding the public discourse every day in Pakistan.

Space in our newspapers is being given to people who live in another country & believe that if you so much as travel to another country, you shouldn’t criticize them. Space is being given to people who work for NGOs and believe development money means you have to support immoral policies of the donor. On our TV set are news channels that draw revenues from say the US, and their employees tell you off if you question the US war after raising money from volunteers in that country.

These people, by their own admission, link money, travel and citizenship with loyalty and support for immoral and illegal policies. How can they be, and how come they are being, afforded space in public discourse when they clearly, THEMSELVES, believe they have a conflict of interest, scratch that, believe they have a compulsion to support their “benefactors”!?